18/12/2017 14:59 SAST | Updated 18/12/2017 14:59 SAST

The ANC's Top 6 Leaders - What The Numbers Say

There has been a return to slate politics in the ANC -- is it a good thing?

Siphiwe Sibeko / Reuters
ANC members and delegates attend the 54th National Conference of the ANC at the Nasrec Expo Centre in Johannesburg, South Africa, December 16, 2017. REUTERS/Siphiwe Sibeko

Political scientist Nathan Dufour of the Paternoster Group has been crunching numbers for months to work out who will lead the ANC based on the party's branch nominations. Here's what he says.

Dufour's calculations have also predicted the following: David Mabuza has a huge majority for his nomination as deputy president. Gwede Mantashe is leading Nathi Mthethwa substantially for national chairperson. Senzo Mchunu has more votes than Ace Magashule for the role of ANC secretary-general. As deputy secretary-general, Jessie Duarte is ahead of Zingiswa Losi.

But these numbers may not stick. The ANC has returned to slate politics where delegates vote for a list of predetermined candidates per faction. Here's what slate politics mean: