Political scientist Nathan Dufour of the Paternoster Group has been crunching numbers for months to work out who will lead the ANC based on the party's branch nominations. Here's what he says.
Dufour's calculations have also predicted the following: David Mabuza has a huge majority for his nomination as deputy president. Gwede Mantashe is leading Nathi Mthethwa substantially for national chairperson. Senzo Mchunu has more votes than Ace Magashule for the role of ANC secretary-general. As deputy secretary-general, Jessie Duarte is ahead of Zingiswa Losi.
But these numbers may not stick. The ANC has returned to slate politics where delegates vote for a list of predetermined candidates per faction. Here's what slate politics mean: